Why are the NBA ratings down?

Bruin Sports Analytics
6 days ago
13 min read

By: Charlie Wang

Introduction

The NBA, home to over 500 elite players across 30 teams, offers an 82-game regular season followed by a high-stakes playoff run. In recent decades, fans were captivated by iconic showdowns—LeBron vs. Curry, Kobe vs. the Celtics. But recently, that excitement has faded. Fans report a declining sense of joy when tuning in, and the numbers back it up: TV ratings have dropped significantly from their highs in the 2000s.

The NBA has introduced reforms—an in-season tournament, changes to the All-Star Game—to boost interest. Yet these efforts haven’t reversed the trend. So what’s behind this viewership slump? This article explores the key factors—from gameplay to broadcast access—that are reshaping how audiences experience the modern NBA.

Key Topics

Load Management: The practice of resting healthy players, especially superstars, during regular season games to preserve their health for the playoffs or avoid injury.

Player Empowerment: A movement where players have more control over their careers, including trade demands, team preferences, and off-court influence.

Parity: Competitive balance across the league—no single team dominates for long, and multiple teams have a chance to contend.

Overreliance on the Three-Ball: A trend in modern NBA offenses that prioritizes three-point shooting over mid-range or post play, sometimes at the cost of variety and strategy.

Media Accessibility Issues (updated from “Rise of Illegal Streaming” and “Over-commercialization”): Frustration over blackout restrictions, streaming limitations, and excessive advertising that disrupt the viewing experience and push fans toward illegal alternatives.

Bad-Reffing: Concerns over inconsistent or biased officiating, including foul disparities and perceived favoritism, which can influence game outcomes and erode trust in the league.

Game Predictability: A rise in blowouts and resting players has led to fewer competitive games, reducing excitement and fan engagement.

Tanking: When teams deliberately lose games to improve their odds in the draft lottery, often alienating fans and depressing attendance.

Load Management

On September 27, 2019, ESPN published this article ranking the top 10 players in the NBA. This was shortly after Kawhi Leonard led his Toronto Raptors to the NBA championship. Kawhi’s impact and popularity were so high that his new team, the Los Angeles Clippers, were projected to win the 2020 NBA championship. Kawhi only played 57 games that season, then 52 games the next, and was injured for the season afterward. Experts estimated that he only played around 56% of all regular-season games with the Clippers.

Kawhi is a great example of why the NBA ratings are down. When people talk about load management, he is the face of the conversation. It’s not rocket science: if superstars are resting games even when they are healthy, the average NBA fan won’t turn on the games.

Disclaimer: The number of games Kawhi Leonard missed because of load management was estimated from a variety of sources from the internet; there is no official number of games, and the data is pure speculation

These two graphs show the number of games Kawhi Leonard missed due to load management and the number of missed games per season for the last 10 years. You can make the argument that load management has been effective since the year Kawhi Leonard missed the most amount of games due to load management was the year his team won the championship. You can also make the argument that load management has not been effective; Kawhi missed the most amount of games because of load management from 2018-2021, and he got injured in the 2021 playoffs and missed the entire 2021-2022 season.

Regardless, for the average viewer, he/she is trying to watch his/her favorite player on a nightly basis. When superstars like Kawhi are missing 10+ games per season because of load management, it makes the NBA unwatchable. As superstar Anthony Edwards put it, “If there’s anything I could change about the league to make it better… probably just all the guys sitting [and] resting. That’s the only thing I probably don’t like. Just play, man. If you're 70-80%, you gotta play. I don’t like all the sitting and missing games and stuff like [that]. These people might only have enough money to come to one game… that might be the game they come to, and you’re sitting out. I take pride in trying to play every game because it might be one fan that never seen me play, and I’m trying to play. That’s the only thing I don’t like: guys just sitting out.”

Player Empowerment

Player empowerment has become one of the defining narratives of modern NBA culture, sparking debate among fans, analysts, and even players themselves. At its core, player empowerment refers to athletes taking control of their careers, whether that means requesting trades, choosing specific markets, or exerting influence over team decisions. Fueled by the rise of social media, increased player mobility, and superstar-driven marketing, this shift has reshaped the power dynamics between franchises and players. Stars like LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and James Harden have all exercised this power, making clear that loyalty to a team is no longer a given when personal or professional goals aren’t being met.

While some celebrate this trend as long-overdue agency for athletes, who historically had little control over their careers, others argue it has gone too far. Critics say that constant trade demands, mid-season disengagement, and superteam formations have hurt competitive balance and team culture. Franchises and fans are left in limbo, unsure if a star will honor the full term of their contract. When a player underperforms or is unhappy and still dictates terms, it can strain locker rooms, alienate fan bases, and ultimately diminish the product on the court. The perception that the regular season has become a waiting game for the playoffs—often defined by a handful of empowered stars—has contributed to declining viewership and growing fan apathy.

Still, the league is largely built on the marketability of its stars, and the NBA has leaned into that branding. Player empowerment is not likely to go away, but how it evolves will be crucial. The challenge lies in finding a balance: ensuring players have the freedom to advocate for themselves while maintaining the integrity and competitiveness of the league. Solutions may come in the form of stricter contract rules, revised trade windows, or new collective bargaining provisions that reward commitment and accountability. As the NBA navigates this era, the conversation around player empowerment will remain one of its most complex and consequential.

Parity

While players now wield more control than ever before, another major shift in the league has been the rise of competitive parity. Parity in the NBA is at its highest right now. Since 2019, there has not been a back-to-back champion. There hasn’t even been a team that made it to the finals in two straight years. Is this good for the NBA? Many can argue that it’s not. But first, let’s go back to 2018 for one second. The Golden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavaliers are back in the finals for the third straight year. It’s another Curry vs Lebron finals. There are many fans on social media posting how boring and predictable the NBA is. Many people back then would argue that parity would save the NBA. However, the NBA finals ratings say otherwise.

From 2015 to 2018, we can see that the NBA ratings were the highest. We see a dip in 2018, probably because the Warriors swept the Cavaliers. When Lebron and Curry were on top, the NBA was thriving. Now, with Curry and Lebron getting up there in age, we can see the NBA ratings drop by half. The bad thing about parity is that there isn’t a definitive face of the league. There isn’t anyone in the NBA who can be marketed towards the casual fans. We can see a small surge in popularity in 2022, which was when Curry outdueled the Boston Celtics in the NBA finals. It’s no surprise that the NBA ratings spike when Curry is playing. In short, while parity makes the NBA unpredictable, the ratings are at their lowest in decades.

Overreliance on the three-ball

Another trend that has reshaped the NBA—and arguably hurt its watchability—is the league’s obsession with the three-point shot. In 2015, the Golden State Warriors shocked the world by winning the NBA finals, dethroning LeBron along the way. At the time, we had never seen a team like them before. They relied on defense and three-point shooting. They led the league in three-point attempts and three-point percentage. History tells us that competing teams tend to follow the leader, and within a couple of years, most of the contending teams tweaked their offense to where they lived or died by the three-pointer.

While it is fun watching Stephen Curry drain three-pointers from 35 feet out, is this good for the ratings? Year after year, teams are shooting more and more threes. To put this into perspective, the 2024-2025 Charlotte Hornets are one of the worst, if not the worst, teams at shooting the three-pointer. They are attempting more three-pointers than the 2015 Golden State Warriors.

Here is a graph showing every NBA team in the 2024-2025 season and their 3-point attempts per game versus their win percentage. While the Boston Celtics win a lot of games and shoot a lot of threes, many teams are clustered in the middle; just looking at the graph, there is no correlation between 3-point attempts per game and win percentage. Take the Denver Nuggets, for example. They shoot the least amount of threes in the NBA, but they have an above-average record. The calculated correlation coefficient between 3-point attempts per game and win percentage is 0.130, meaning that there is no correlation between the two variables. This begs the question: if chucking up threes does not lead to winning, then why do teams shoot so many threes even when fans complain about it?

Many casual viewers have claimed that the NBA is unwatchable. The mid-range shot is pretty much dead. Teams are either shooting deep threes or lay-ups. Because everyone is now playing by the numbers, every team looks the same to the average viewer. The 3-point percentage is just under 36%, meaning the average attempt produces 1.07 points. To make a 2-pointer equally valuable, teams must shoot at least 53.5% within the arc. This pretty much wipes out the mid-range shot, as that shot is very inefficient according to the numbers. Casual viewers don’t like this type of basketball because if a team is not shooting well, the game is unwatchable.

The NBA’s Media Problem: Blackouts, Ads, and Streaming Fatigue

For many fans, watching an NBA game has become more frustrating than exciting. Between blackout restrictions, expensive subscriptions, and endless ad breaks, the simple act of tuning in feels like jumping through hoops. Even diehard viewers are questioning whether the league values accessibility or just advertising revenue.

According to a 2024 Axios survey of 5,000 NBA fans, 11.4% admitted to watching games through illegal streams—nearly the same number as those using local TV (12%). Why? Because even after paying for the NBA League Pass or a premium streaming service, many fans are still unable to watch their local team. For example, Lakers fans in Los Angeles can’t watch live games unless they have a traditional cable package that includes Spectrum SportsNet, due to blackout rules designed to protect regional broadcast deals. Nationally televised games on ESPN, ABC, or TNT are often blacked out, too, leaving fans with limited, fragmented options.

At the same time, the viewer's experience is being drowned in ads. In the 2022–2023 postseason alone, TV ad impressions rose by 23% before the Finals even began. During the 2021 playoffs, over 170,000 ads aired from more than 1,700 advertisers. It’s not uncommon to turn on a 6:00 p.m. game and still be watching commercials at 6:17. For fans—especially younger, digital-native ones—this kills the momentum and emotional rhythm of the game.

This media model feels increasingly out of step with how modern audiences consume content. While the NBA continues to chase massive media rights deals and advertising dollars, it’s losing viewers who just want simple, direct access to live basketball. Illegal streams, while unethical, offer what many legal platforms don’t: affordability, immediacy, and ease of use. If the NBA wants to reverse its ratings decline, it needs to prioritize the fan experience through flexible, affordable packages, fewer restrictions, and a cleaner viewing product. Accessibility, not exclusivity, is what will bring fans back.

Bad-Reffing

The NBA prides itself on fairness and competition, but a growing number of fans and analysts are calling attention to potential inconsistencies in officiating. The chart above illustrates the top 10 NBA referees in the 2023–24 season with the most extreme foul differentials, defined as the difference between fouls called on road teams versus home teams. A high positive value suggests a bias in favor of home teams, while a negative value indicates the opposite. What’s striking is the wide spread in these numbers, with some referees calling nearly six more fouls against road teams than home teams on average.

Scott Foster and Sean Corbin stand out as the most extreme in the opposite direction, with a differential of 6.0, suggesting they call significantly more fouls on home teams than road teams. On the flip side, referees like Justin Van Duyne (+5.7), Tre Maddox (+4.5), and Clare Aubry (+4.3) show strong trends favoring home teams. This inconsistency in foul calling isn’t just a statistical curiosity—it has real implications for the outcome of games. In a league where a single foul can swing momentum or decide close contests, the influence of referee bias, intentional or not, can severely undermine the integrity of competition.

For fans, these numbers feed a long-standing narrative that certain referees “control” games more than they should. It’s not uncommon for NBA fans to groan when they hear that a certain official is assigned to their team’s game, especially in the playoffs. When patterns like these become public, it intensifies suspicion and reduces trust in the league’s objectivity. Fans don’t want to feel like their team is at a disadvantage before the game even tips off—especially in high-stakes situations.

If the NBA wants to maintain credibility and ensure its officiating meets the standards of professional sports, greater accountability and transparency are needed. Regular, public reviews of referee performance, third-party auditing of foul data, and more even crew assignments across markets could help. While referees are human and errors are inevitable, long-term foul differentials of this magnitude call for more than just a shrug—they require real scrutiny.

Game Predictability

In recent years, NBA fans have voiced increasing concern over the league’s growing predictability, particularly in the form of frequent blowouts. A blowout, typically defined as a game decided by 20 points or more, used to be a relative anomaly. However, in recent seasons, they’ve become more common across both regular-season and playoff games. The 2024–25 season alone tied the record for most 30+ point blowouts, matching the 79 such games recorded in 2021–22. This trend isn’t just anecdotal; the data shows that fans are being treated to fewer nail-biters and more games that feel essentially decided by the third quarter.

This rise in blowouts can partially be attributed to modern play styles. Teams are increasingly reliant on the three-point shot, which leads to greater variance in scoring runs. A team that gets hot from deep can rack up points quickly, while a cold-shooting opponent can fall behind just as fast. Additionally, the growing emphasis on rest and load management means some teams roll out depleted rosters on certain nights, essentially conceding the game before it begins. While these shifts may make sense analytically or medically, they can hurt the viewing experience by eliminating suspense and drama, the very things that made basketball such a thrilling product in the first place.

As a result, TV ratings have taken a hit. Fans tend to tune out when games are uncompetitive, and the league’s marquee matchups often fail to deliver the excitement that was once expected. The 2022–23 playoffs, despite featuring high-profile teams and players, struggled to hold viewers’ attention due to lopsided scores. This disconnect between what the league promotes—closely contested, intense games—and what fans are seeing on screen has become a major issue. Even casual fans, who usually tune in during playoff time, are starting to lose interest when games lack tension and feel more like foregone conclusions.

In the long term, this predictability poses a serious threat to fan engagement and league growth. The NBA has tried to introduce mechanisms to boost competitiveness, like the play-in tournament and in-season tournament, but if blowouts remain frequent, fans may increasingly opt to skip games altogether. Basketball at its best is fast-paced, emotional, and uncertain. The more predictable it becomes, the less compelling it is to watch. If the NBA hopes to restore its ratings and deepen fan loyalty, it must find ways to balance offensive explosiveness with competitive balance and game-to-game unpredictability.

Tanking

Another reason why the NBA ratings are down is because of tanking around the league. If a team is not competing for a championship, they are competing for the number one overall pick. The worst spot a team can be in the NBA is to be not good enough to contend for a championship but not bad enough to have good odds to get the first overall pick. Over the last decade, we’ve seen teams deliberately lose games to secure a higher overall draft pick. The most notable example was the Philadelphia 76ers from 2013, when they hired Sam Hinkie as their general manager, to 2017, when Ben Simmons was drafted. However, these four years were brutal for 76ers fans.

This graph shows just how blatant the tanking was—Philadelphia won, on average, only 4 of their last 20 games each season during ‘The Process,’ including an astonishing 1-win finish in 2015–16.

Here is a chart showing the average home attendance for the 76ers from 2013 to 2020. We can see that the years during “The Process” saw the fewest number of fan attendance, demonstrating that tanking and losing on purpose do not appeal to the wider audience. When the 76ers were fighting it out in the playoffs and battling the eventual champions Toronto Raptors, that was when their home attendance was highest. This clearly shows that winning basketball games and giving a good effort on the court result in higher attendance.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the NBA's ratings decline isn’t the result of one single issue—it’s a combination of several overlapping trends that have changed the way fans engage with the league. From the rise of load management and predictable blowouts to the increasing frequency of tanking and perceived inconsistencies in officiating, each of these factors chips away at the excitement and trust that once defined the NBA experience. Meanwhile, off-court dynamics like player empowerment, media blackouts, and over-commercialization have left many fans feeling alienated from the product they used to love. Even the league’s embrace of analytics, which has led to an overreliance on three-point shooting, has arguably made the games feel more repetitive and less entertaining to casual viewers.

However, these challenges are not insurmountable. The NBA is still one of the most globally recognized and culturally influential sports leagues in the world. But to reclaim the level of engagement it once enjoyed, the league must listen more closely to its fans and adapt accordingly. That means addressing broadcast access issues, improving competitive balance, holding officiating to higher standards, and encouraging stars to show up consistently. Fans want effort, emotion, and drama—not algorithms and scripted blowouts. The sooner the NBA returns to those roots, the more likely it is to win back the loyalty of its fading audience.