Are the "Uncs" Holding Back the NBA?
- Bruin Sports Analytics
- Mar 27
- 7 min read
By: Yuri Jung, Evana Sharma, Chloe Lee
Introduction
Over the recent decades, the National Basketball Association (NBA) has evolved in its pace, playing style, and athlete development. NBA team rosters are built with players of different ages, ranging from rookies to veterans, and each group brings different skills to the team. Veteran players bring leadership, decision-making, and playoff experience, while younger players contribute speed and versatility. Some franchises prioritize youth development and athleticism, while others target veterans for a more reliable, skilled core. In a league that continues to focus on the younger generation, can older players still keep up with the changing pace of the game?
The Houston Rockets were the second-youngest team in the 2022-2023 season, with an average team age of 24, and finished with a 0.268 win percentage. During the following offseason, the Rockets altered the team’s composition by signing Fred VanVleet, who was entering his 8th season, and Dillon Brooks, who was entering his 7th season. The addition of these two players brought more experience, leadership, and guidance, gained through years in the league, into the lineup and contributed to an increase in the Rockets’ average team age to 26.2 years. The impact was noticeable - in the 2023-2024 season, the Rockets achieved a 0.500 win percentage, nearly doubling their success from the previous season. Age may not be the only factor contributing to improvement, but it raises the question: how does average age affect team performance in the NBA?
To explore this question, we analyze data from the 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024 NBA seasons.
Terms to Know
Term | Definition |
Average Team Age | Mean age of all players on the roster |
Win Percentage | Total wins divided by total games played |
Field Goal Percentage (FG%) | Total two and three pointers made divided by total attempted (excluding Free Throws) |
Three Point Percentage (3P%) | Total three pointers made divided by attempted |
Offensive Rating/Efficiency (ORtg) | Points scored per 100 possessions |
Defensive Rating/Efficiency (DRtg) | Points allowed per 100 possessions |
Pace | Estimated possessions per game |
Age's Effect on Win Percentage
Based on this visualization, there is a positive linear trend where teams with higher average age tend to have higher win percentages. As an example of improvement with age, the Oklahoma City Thunder had the youngest average age in 2021-2022 at 24.1 years, with a 29.3 win percentage, which was by far the lowest. Fast forward two seasons to 2023-2024, with a slightly increased average age of 25.6 years, they held the best win percentage in the Western Conference at 69.5%. The Thunder’s huge jump from nearly the bottom to the very top of their conference shows that after their young prospects gained a year or two of in-game experience and got past their “rookie mistakes,” they were able to adjust and learn how to play efficiently with each other, improving performance and position in the standings.
It is significant to note that teams with an average age of 26 to 28 years performed best with the highest win percentages. This is especially apparent in the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons, where most data points are consistently higher or on the regression line within that age range. On the other hand, the 2023-24 season showed the most win percentage variability in the data distribution. Though most of the data points lie above the regression line at an average team age of 26, a few teams, including the Detroit Pistons and Washington Wizards, are far below the line, creating a wide range of win percentages. Therefore, we can infer that other factors influence a team’s win percentage, such as an individual player’s impact. Players who have stayed loyal to a team for longer are likely to be more familiar with the team’s playing style and overall team success strategy, so their experience leads to more wins. Poor coaching or weak in-game schemes may also be factors leading to this outcome. So while average age may partly contribute to a team’s success, it is important to acknowledge that it is likely not the sole factor.
Field Goal Efficiency
Figures 2 and 3—average team age vs field goal percentage and three-point percentage—have mostly positive linear trends. As average team age increases, so do field goal percentage and three-point percentage, though this trend is more apparent while observing the change in three-point percentage. These graphs also show a trend of three-point percentages increasing overall across all teams over time. When looking at the three seasons chronologically, the minimum three-point percentage is about 32%, 33%, and 35%, respectively. This reveals how the NBA’s playing style has shifted towards the three-point shot over the years. Thus, it is also important to consider veteran players who have developed during the three-point evolution era and who could be influencing their teammates to take more outside shots, leading to the positive trend in three-point percentage as average age increases. Additionally, younger players just entering the league may want to showcase their speed and athleticism, so they drive in the paint more for flashier finishes. Meanwhile, older players have less speed to be as crafty, so they have to rely on the outside shot.
Offensive Performance
Figures 4 and 5—average team age vs pace and offensive efficiency—show meaningful relationships between team age and offensive playing style. In the pace visualization, all three seasons exhibit a slight negative trend, suggesting that as average team age increases, pace generally decreases. Older teams, which we define as teams with an age range above 27-29 years, tend to play slower, clustering around lower pace values near 99 possessions per game. On the other hand, younger teams with average ages of 24-26 years tend to play faster at above 101 possessions per game. This suggests that younger teams rely more on speed and transition opportunities, whereas older teams play a more controlled and deliberate style.
When comparing the trend in the pace visualization to the offensive efficiency visualization, there is an interesting contrast. Despite playing at a slower pace, older teams tend to have higher offensive efficiency, as shown by the positive linear trend across all three seasons. Teams with an average age of around 26-29 years old cluster higher on the offensive efficiency scale with around 115 points per 100 possessions. However, younger teams generally occupy the lower end of Figure 5. This suggests that speed alone does not necessarily create a better offense. Offensive success may depend more on execution, decision-making, and ball security. Younger teams may push the pace but, in turn, also commit more mistakes and turnovers, whereas older teams play more concise and efficient basketball that maximizes possessions. Overall, these graphs suggest that while age may slow a team’s pace, older teams typically have stronger offensive production and more efficient scoring styles.
Defensive Performance
Defensive efficiency is defined as the number of points allowed to the other team per game, so a lower value is more ideal. In all three seasons shown in Figure 6, as the average age of the team increases, their points allowed decrease, indicating that older teams tend to have higher defensive efficiency. Older players have more experience in the league, where they learn to “read” the multitude of players they have competed against and understand their offensive approach. Having this experience allows older players to anticipate better how their opponents may attack, as well as have more discipline and higher defensive IQ. For example, they might not gamble and try to jump in passing lanes for steals as much as younger players because they know that if they cannot get it, the team will be at a huge disadvantage.
Younger players often come into the league with a scrappier defensive mindset, going after steals and loose balls more often and putting more ball pressure on their opponents. This is their defensive edge against older players, who tend to be slower and have less mobility on the defensive end; however, they lack the discipline acquired with time and playing with their teammates. Additionally, many younger players are offense-oriented and strive to increase their personal scoring, placing less emphasis on improving their defensive skillset, which explains why younger teams tend to give up more points to their counterparts.
While there is a general correlation between older teams and higher defensive efficiency, there is substantial variability among teams of the same age range, especially in the 2023-2024 season. In this season, some teams with an average age of about 26 years allow their opponents to score up to 117 points per game, while other teams have much better defensive efficiency and allow as few as 106 points per game. While teams with these “middle-of-the-data” age ranges tend to have significant variability, the majority of these teams do hover between allowing 108 and 111 points per game, which is comparable to teams that are older than them. Thus, it is worthwhile to have older players who are at least a couple of seasons in, as they will have some experience under their belt. The variability of the common line, however, suggests that although age is a factor in defensive performance, there are more significant factors that lead to strong defense, such as better-executed defensive schemes and stronger communication on that end of the ball.
Conclusion
Age is certainly not the only factor that goes into producing a better or more successful team. Game logs from the 2021-2022, 2022-2023, and 2023-2024 seasons suggest that more experience leads to increased offensive and defensive productivity, even if pace declines. Every player who enters the league comes in green to some extent, whether a star recruit or a third-string player on their college team. It is with lots of in-game experience that these younger players truly begin to understand the discipline and IQ needed to succeed at the NBA level. It is not just about “getting yours” (prioritizing individual scoring), but about learning teammates to build chemistry offensively and defensively, and understanding opponents to prepare defensive strategies to stop their offensive power. All this comes with time, which is why teams with older players who have had their time to grow tend to be more successful on both ends.
In Figure 7, we see a significant standout for teams with a mean age of about 27.2 years old, with a mean win percentage of about 0.77. Teams with an average age of 27 to 28 see the most overall success, which can be attributed to the earlier point that, after a couple of years in the NBA, during which players have gained in-game experience, teams can maximize player development to win more games. Older players may lose a bit of their spark and speed over time, but the leadership and understanding they bring are skills that cannot be taught but learned. These attributes are certainly still valuable for success on the court, even through the evolving NBA playing styles.
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